1,000-crore Bollywood Blockbuster: Dream or Reality?

The year was 1943, the movie – Kismet, the hero – Ashok Kumar, the box office earning – Rs. 1 crore and India had its first all time blockbuster film. So what if the Indian Film Industry was born three decades ago in 1913, it was at this time that it had come into maturity. Kismet was followed by many more Boxoffice Blockbusters including Mother India (1957), Mughal-e-Azam (1960) and Sholay (1975). Post-liberalisation, Hum Aapke Hain Kaun (1994) changed film business forever to become one of the biggest blockbusters of the modern era. But it was Gajini (2008) that redefined Hindi Film business by becoming the first Rs.100 crore Hindi film i.e. a film with Net Collection (after deducting entertainment tax) of Rs.100 cr from Indian Boxoffice. Since then, almost 20 Hindi films are a part of the exclusive 100-crore club. But one film that stands out amongst all is 3 Idiots (2009) which is the only film to earn Rs. 200 cr+ Net from Indian Boxoffice and Rs.100 cr+ from overseas market. Only time can tell which movie will be able to break the record set by 3 Idiots (Total Worldwide Boxoffice Collection: Rs.325 cr plus!)

The  100-cr club: not exclusive anymore

From film critics to paanwalas and from stars to spotboys, everyone talks about how and how soon a big-budget film will be able to cross the Rs. 100 cr mark. From one film each in 2008 & 2009 to two in 2010 to five in 2011 to nine in 2012, and two films in 2013 (till date), the Bollywood’s 100-cr Club is slowly losing its exclusivity over the last few years. It is clearly the result of a paradigm shift in the business of Bollywood. There are four key contributing factors for this shift:

1. Multiplex Mania: From the first multiplex by PVR in 1997 to almost 1,400 multiplex screens in 2013, the multiplexes transformed the film business in India. Though they hardly account to 12% of total 12,000+ screens in India, they contribute almost 70% of a film’s box-office collection. By offering a better film viewing experience, mutliplexes have brought the film lovers back to the silver screens.
2. More Prints:  Mughal-e-Azam was released in 150 theatres across India. Thanks to the advent of digital technology, 3 Idiots released with 1,000 prints and Ek Tha Tiger (2012) with 3,400 prints in India and 500-600 prints overseas, which explains how Ek Tha Tiger took just 6 days to cross Rs. 100 cr mark!
3. High Ticket Prices: When Mughal-e-Azam released in 1960, “Maratha Mandir”, a leading theatre in Mumbai, charged Rs.1.60 for the balcony while the average cost of a ticket then was around 50 paise. When Hum Aapke Hain Kaun was released in 1994, it forced theatre owners to upgrade their systems and to increase ticket prices. Today the average ticket price in multiplexes is Rs.140-150, compared to Rs.60-65 in single-screen theatres. And on weekends, leading multiplex chains charge almost Rs.300-350 for a new release. For 3D films, the rate is even higher.  
4. Longer Weekends: Friday-release has been replaced by Wednesday- or Thursday-release as many big budget films take advantage of long weekends because of festivals or holidays. In fact, Ek Tha Tiger released on a Tuesday and benefited hugely because of a six-day weekend! Most of the 100-cr films enjoyed this kind of longer weekends. Though a longer weekend is no guarantee for a film’s success, it certainly provides a head start.

Importance of Overseas Boxoffice Collection 

While domestic Boxoffice collection may be the only criteria to be eligible for 100-cr club, the importance of overseas market cannot be overlooked. And Shahrukh Khan starring in 7 out of the top 10 highest grossing Bollywood movies in the overseas market, clearly rules the overseas market, followed by Aamir Khan, Hritik Roshan and now Ranbir Kapoor. US, UK and UAE are key markets for Hindi films, besides South-east Asia and rest of the world where South-Indian Superstars Rajnikant and Kamal Hassan enjoy immense popularity. 

From Dil Se (1998), which was the 1st Hindi Film to be in the top 10 UK Boxoffice charts, to Jab Tak Hai Jaan, the contribution of overseas Boxoffice collection has been steadily increasing. 3 Idiots earned $25 mn from overseas market which is more than 30% of films total box office collection. Jab Tak Hai Jaan made almost equal amount from domestic and overseas market. And yet the overseas market is relatively untapped for Bollywood Blockbusters. 

Hollywood blockbuster, Avatar - the highest grossing movie in the history of world cinema, earned more than $2 bn from ticket sales out of which just 30% ($600mn) came from US and rest 70% came from non-US markets. How was this made possible? Internationally, Avatar opened on a total of 14,604 screens in 106 territories! Bollywood has a long way to go before it can match the marketing muscles of Hollywood studios, but Bollywood can certainly aim to cross the $100 mn mark from overseas market in the foreseeable future.

1000 Cr Blockbuster – The Holy Grail of Bollywood

The writing on the wall is clear. 100 crore clubs don’t excite anyone anymore. If we combine Indian and overseas Boxoffice collections, we observe that a lot of films have managed to cross Rs.200 cr mark and very soon we will certainly see a film crossing the Rs.500 cr mark at worldwide Boxoffice collection. So, why not set a new benchmark for Bollywood Blockbusters. Why not think of the unthinkable but not the improbable. How about a 1000-cr Bollywood Blockbuster which will change the business of Bollywood forever!

Although it may seem too ambitious to aim for a Rs.1,000 cr Bollywood Blockbuster, it may happen in the near future. There are 3 supporting theories:

1. Theory 1: With 1,000 prints, 3 Idiots managed to cross Rs.200 cr mark solely from Indian Boxoffice.  Thus, with 3000+ prints at the time of release as well as increased ticket rates; we can very well expect a “good film” with similar audience appeal to cross the Rs.300 cr mark at the Indian Boxoffice with a successful run of 4 to 5 weeks. 
2. Theory 2: The Indian Film industry is obsessed with Boxoffice collection & now with the 100-cr club. But we hardly ever track audience footfalls. Titanic was watched by approximately 12 cr people, compared to half that number who watched Avatar in theatres. It is estimated that Mughal-E-Azam and Sholay were viewed in theatre by 3-cr plus film lovers at the time when Indian population was just 43 cr and 60 cr respectively which means that almost 5% of the Indian population watched Sholay in theatres. And if we can manage to come close to that number in today’s time, then just do the numbers!
3. Theory 3: The overseas market plays a crucial role for a lot of Bollywood films. Given the current rupee depreciation, the net collection from overseas market is bound to increase substantially. We already have a Bollywood movie crossing $25mn mark in the overseas market. If we can manage to “correctly” capture US, UK, China and other key overseas market, then there is a high probability of crossing $100mn+ mark from overseas market.

So, while on paper, it may look possible to work out a plan to achieve Rs.1,000 cr magic mark, business of Bollywood does not  follow pure mathematics. What we need now is a talented and committed team who, besides getting the mathematics right, can also strike the right balance between the art and science of film making to deliver a Mega-Blockbuster of all times. Though there can’t be any magic formula for success in Bollywood, the following ingredients are a must to deliver a 1,000-cr Blockbuster:

1. Ingredient 1 – Indian Story with Global Appeal: Story was, is and will remain the most crucial element for the global success of any film. The storyline has to have the perfect mix of emotions that appeal to Indian heartland and at the same time manages to strike the right chord with global audiences. And we can explore 3 genres that may appeal to both the audiences: 1) a period film in the Indian set up, 2) a sci-fi film probably with characters inspired from Indian mythology, and 3) a “save-the-world-from-baddies” film based in India. And if the storyline gives opportunity to have 3D version, then it will certainly boost the Boxoffice collection. 
2. Ingredient 2 – Stellar Indian Superstar cast: Casting will play a super role in the success of the movie. A superstar is a must for a super-film of this size and scale. Shah Rukh Khan, Aamir Khan and Hritik Roshan may provide the needed star power to this venture, though Salman Khan and Ranbir Kapoor can’t be ruled out completely. The film will also need stellar supporting cast with the likes of Amitabh Bachchan, Aishwariya Rai Bachchan, Om Puri, Anupam Kher, Anil Kapoor , etc. may also help to reach out to wider audiences. A vital role in the film by Rajnikant or Kamal Hassan can provide the necessary boost, given their huge overseas fan base.
3. Ingredient 3 – Presence of an International Star: An all-Indian star cast will not be able to break into the lucrative overseas market. Butan international star will. Though an A-lister Hollywood star may not be financially viable, but an important part (equal to the main lead) in the film must be played by a popular International star. If a popular male star is too expensive, then a top-notch actress can add a lot of value to the film, provided her role is more than just singing and dancing. 
4. Ingredient 4 – Different versions for different audiences: The film should be written and shot in a way that we can have two versions of it. One version for Indian audiences (150 min) with usual song and dance routine and second version for the international audiences (100-120 mins) without compromising on the essence of the film with minimal or none of the Bollywood routines. 
5. Ingredient 5 - Money: An equally important ingredient in this mix is money. Once Bollywood manages to break into the overseas market like Chinese films, we may not always need big budget releases for global audience., But the first Rs.1,000 cr Bollywood film may require substantial investment. We have seen films like Ra One with budget of around Rs.150 cr and Rajnikant starred Robot spent almost Rs.200 cr (including marketing expenses). A truly international film shot mostly in India can be made with the budget of Rs.100 cr. Now let’s add around $15 mn for an international star and $25 mn for marketing and promotions. (Avatar spent $150mn to market the movie!). Bollywood filmmakers have their own ways of cost optimization, but we may still need a budget of around Rs.300-350 cr to make a Bollywood film for the international market.

These are no secret ingredients. What we need is a Bollywood Magician who can combine them to create magic. The only question remains that in the process of making a truly global Bollywood film, will it remain a Bollywood movie with an international star or will it become a Hollywood movie with Bollywood tadka? Who cares as long as we have a Rs.1000 cr Bollywood Blockbuster!!!